ビットコイン8200ドルの重要性、コインチェック上場発表のモナコイン暴騰が物語る「好地合い」|仮想通貨市況

ビットコイン8200ドルの重要性、コインチェック上場発表のモナコイン暴騰が物語る「好地合い」|仮想通貨市況
仮想通貨市場

●急騰直後のブルトラップで急落したビットコイン、次の節目は

●海外アナリストが解説、今回の急落局面は好機となるか

金融市場と仮想通貨

31日の東京株式市場は3日続落し、前日比341円安の2万601円で引けた。

米トランプ政権が、6月10日にメキシコからの輸入品すべてに5%の追加関税を課すと発表し、メキシコ政府の不法移民への対応に厳しい姿勢を示したことも相場の押し下げ要因となった。

今回の発表を受け、ダウ工業株30種平均の先物が再び2.5万ドルを割り込んだほか、メキシコの法定通貨ペソが急落、5ヶ月ぶりの安値を付けている。

同時期に最高取引高を記録したメキシコのビットコインP2P取引(LocalBitcoin上)の出来高推移にどのような影響が出るのか。市場へのニューマネー流入を見る上でも注目したい要因の一つとなるだろう。

仮想通貨(ブロックチェーン)関連株は、ビットコイン急落で6.53%安となったリミックスを筆頭に、マネックス、SBIホールディングス、GMO、フィスコといった交換業者銘柄が2〜5%安となるなど、いずれも冴えない。

2018-03-10 20:30

ビットコインテクニカル分析

ビットコイン価格は、0時半頃にペナント上抜けで年初来高値の97.5万円を更新(①)。そのまま騰勢を強め、2018年5月以来の9,000ドル(99万円=bitFlyer)の高値を付けるなど、約1年ぶりの高値を記録した。

しかし、100万円の大台を目前にして急反落。リターンムーブで上値の重さを確認(②)した後、一時8,000ドル(88万円)まで約12万円幅下落(③)した。今回のような騙し上げは、BTC市場で出現頻度の高い”典型的なブルトラップ”であり、bitFlyer BTCFXのレバレッジ変更前の建玉である「15倍ポジション」を刈り取るような動きと言える。

現在サポートされているのは、19〜25日にかけて何度も跳ね返された反落ポイントでの攻防になっている。ここを下抜けた場合の支持線としては、過去チャートの反発ポイントや出来高を勘案すると、8000ドル(88万円)、7900ドル(86万円)、7350ドル(80万円)、7000ドル(77万円)辺りの水平線は意識されやすいだろう。

今回の相場のプルバックが、強烈な振い落としとして押し目となるのか、月単位の一時的な下げトレンドに移行するのかは、日足の形状から慎重に見極める必要があるものの、直近出来高推移やマーケットの材料感度(バイナンスコインやモナコインの高騰など)から鑑みても、4月以前とは一線を画する”地合い好転”の状況にあることは間違いないだろう。

コインポストの仮想通貨市況では、便宜上、bitFlyerチャートを使用したJPY表記で解説することが多いが、仮想通貨の特性上、世界基軸である「USD基準」で見る投資家の方が多いため、特にBitMEXなどで心理的節目(6000,7000,8000ドルなど)は意識されやすいポイントとなるため、指値・逆指値を入れる際は、板の厚さも同時に確認しておきたい。

モナコインが暴騰

本日は、仮想通貨大手取引所コインチェックがモナコインの新規上場を発表するというサプライズも飛び出した。

コインチェックハッキング事件を発端に、金融庁の規制および認可基準が厳しくなって以来、国内での新規コイン上場は、2018年1月末にbitFlyerにLiskが上場して以来、約1年4ヶ月ぶりとなる。

これに伴い、ビットコインなど仮想通貨市場全体が調整局面にある中、120円台で推移していたモナコインが急動意。18:30時点で前日比100%高を超える250円付近まで急騰した。

bitbank

一時400円付近まで暴騰する局面もあるなど過熱感が伺えるものの、その人気の高さを如実に物語っている。国内最大手コインチェックで取扱いが開始される「2019年6月上旬」に向け、関連プロジェクトの今後の動向を含め、国内外から高い関心を集めることになりそうだ。

8200ドルラインの重要性

25日、人気アナリストJosh Rager氏は、ビットコインの1つの節目として8200ドル(約90万円)のラインを超えることが、継続的強気相場を形成するにあたり極めて重要であることを指摘した。同アナリストは、29日には9,000ドルからのプルバックを警告していた。

なお、これからの心理的節目ついては、「現相場は再び9,000ドルまでリバウンドする可能性もあるが、本日終値で8,200ドルを守れるかどうかが極めて重要だ。」と、独自の見解を述べている。

急落局面は買い戻しの好機か

もう1人の人気仮想通貨アナリストChonis Trading氏は、今回の急落に関して、ビットコインを買い戻す絶好機と見ている。

同氏は、深夜に起きた-10%以上の価格調整が、5月において6度目となる1,000ドル(約10万円)幅の価格変動であり、中・長期トレンドが上向きである限り、今回も押し目ではないかと分析した。

なお、仮に終値(日本時間6月1日9時)が8548ドル(約93万円)以上にあれば、フィボナッチ上では上げ相場、それ以下であれば下げ相場に転じる可能性が考えられるとの見解を述べている。

CoinPostの関連記事

2019-05-25 09:40
2019-05-31 14:27

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